The hottest situation faced by the printing indust

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South Africa: the situation faced by the printing industry and the global printing industry

ladies and gentlemen:

first of all, please allow me to thank the China printing and Equipment Industry Association for inviting me to make a speech. I would like to thank Mr. Wang Demao in particular and congratulate him and his colleagues on holding such a successful exhibition under the current severe economic situation

I was invited to express my views on the current situation of the printing industry in South Africa and the world. Next, I will briefly describe the printing and packaging industry in South Africa, focusing on the prospects of the international printing industry, which is more closely related to us today

the printing and packaging industry contributes 2.5% of China's GDP. China is a small country with a population of less than 45million, with less than 70000 employees in the printing industry, and the printing and packaging industry has become the sixth largest industry in China. China's currency (rand) and the US dollar adopt a floating exchange rate system, which is currently floating between r8.5/1$-r9.0/1$. Compared with some countries in Asia, Europe and North America, South Africa is not an economic power, but it is the country with the most development potential in Africa. We have a very perfect banking system. At present, the banking industry of South Africa ranks 15th in the rating of the world organization for economic cooperation and development

when I learned that I would have the opportunity to speak at this forum, I heard some people call the current economic turmoil a tsunami. I think this description is very appropriate. If you can recall the TV picture of the devastating tsunami that swept Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent in December 2004, you will remember the scene that the powerful turbulence swept away countless creatures and property, and you will remember the scene that the new Grand Hyatt and ankovi and other creatures were devastated after the tsunami receded. I'm afraid that after the financial tsunami, I'll repeat the similar situation as before. With the loss of vitality, the economic form may also undergo fundamental changes

since last September, the unemployed population in South Africa has reached 130000. Recent projections show that 300000 people in South Africa will still face unemployment in 2009. At present, unemployment has affected all areas of the national economy, and the printing and packaging industry is closely related to all walks of life. Therefore, we are not immune. Of course, compared with the grim situation in the United States, where more than 610000 people have been unemployed every week since April this year, the unemployed population reached 5.1 million in 2007, and the unemployment rate will reach 9.5% by the end of 2009, our situation is insignificant

since September last year, major countries have insufficient confidence in the banking system, and the stock market has also fallen to an unprecedented low. The circulation sector has also been adversely affected, and governments have to focus their economic assistance on some large financial institutions, leaving other companies or institutions to fend for themselves. On October 24, 2008, the Dow Jones industrial index fell 40.9% compared with October 9, 2007. At the same time, the S & P 500 index fell 44% compared with the peak of the previous year, while the NASDAQ technology stock index plummeted 45.7%. The value has shrunk significantly

in the west, people inevitably compare the current economic situation with the great depression in 1929. Since there are no people in that era among us, at least no people who have grown up in that era, I think maybe we need to know the situation at that time again:

the real GDP decreased by 29%

the per capita consumption expenditure decreased by 41%

the industrial output decreased by 54%

the price level fell by 47%

the stock market fell by 89%

the unemployment rate in the United States reached 26%

we hope that that history will not repeat itself. By the end of February this year, the United States had experienced five consecutive quarters of economic recession. At present, the success or failure of the U.S. economy and the printing market largely depends on the adoption of the economic assistance act and the response measures of the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

the global printing and packaging industry will inevitably be affected by the economic crisis, even if there is no great depression, and the impact on countries is also different

the common impact of the overall economy on the printing industry is reflected in the following aspects:

1 the economic situation will have a significant impact on investment. The current economic situation will affect the printers' investment in equipment, and will also affect our customers' investment in expanding their own business

2 the economic crisis will not only affect asset investment, but also affect the advertising industry and the demand for all kinds of printing materials

3 the level of disposable income affects commercial printing, such as magazines

4 rising costs erode profits

as for the factors of rising costs, we can see:

5 rising raw material costs

6 the paper price rise caused by the reduction of production capacity of paper mills in Europe and North America

7 customers' demand for low price and high added value continues to grow

8 the rise in energy costs will be slowed down by lower crude oil prices. At the same time, with the increase of inflation, the wage cost of enterprises in all countries will rise

before the economic turmoil in September and October last year, 51% of the performance reports submitted by members of the U.S. printing industry showed a positive growth in sales in 2008. However, the 51% ratio was the lowest in four years since the fourth quarter of 2003. Similarly, 46% of printers reported negative growth, the highest in six years since the first quarter of 2002. These situations are common in developed countries

according to the prediction of the international labor organization, affected by the economic crisis, it is estimated that about 20million jobs will be lost in the world by the end of 2009, and it is believed that the construction, real estate, finance and automotive industries will be hardest hit. Compare the clinical trials of Dynesys and PLIF devices, and you only need to look at the recent economic benefits and reduction data of large automobile manufacturers in Japan, the United States and Europe, The accuracy of this prediction can be confirmed. Chrysler, general motors and other well-known enterprises are facing bankruptcy and reorganization, and some well-known brands will disappear forever. Countries with large domestic markets and not heavily dependent on exports will be better able to withstand this crisis. This is undoubtedly good news for China, whose exports account for only 11% of the total economic value. However, those export-oriented companies have been seriously affected by the reduction in demand from foreign customers. In fact, factories in 16 countries in the euro zone are cutting production and layoffs to cope with the worst economic crisis in 60 years and the decline in exports. This year, the European economy is expected to decline by 4.1%, and the 30 member countries of the world organization for economic cooperation and development (excluding China) will fall into an economic recession

China's economy is the largest engine of international economic growth. According to the latest report, although China's economic growth rate is still the envy of all countries in the world, the world financial crisis has reduced the demand for China's export products in the international market. In essence, China's economic growth has slowed down. Due to the contraction of Japan's economy and the reduction of exports, factory output and household expenditure, the economic growth rate in Asia slowed down. By the end of last year, due to the reduction of taxes and the rise of government expenditure, Britain had the largest six-month fiscal deficit since the Second World War; In Germany, the production price inflation rose to 8.3%, mainly due to the rise in energy costs

how the economic crisis affects the world's printing industry

I think that although the United States and Europe have made great progress in digital printing in recent years, those printing industry whose main customers are banks and high-end retail companies will be seriously affected. The decline of U.S. retail industry will directly slow down the growth of China's packaging and label printing exports. The reduction of household disposable income in rich economies will have a negative impact on the sales of magazines, books and even newspapers. Advertising spending tends to shrink, which will directly impact the printing volume

I think these reasons will lead to the bankruptcy or merger of some printing and packaging companies

in order to tide over the economic crisis, my advice to this industry is to control our costs, avoid unnecessary expenses, and keep close contact with our customers as much as possible. If we can help our clients tide over the difficulties, we will benefit when the global economic and financial situation finally stabilizes and starts to develop again

we will overcome this difficulty! Please keep in mind that printing is the traditional and most cost-effective information technology. You don't need a broadband connection, you can read books, newspapers or magazines freely

thank you

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